Please don’t comment here. go to Seeking Alpha to comment. I will post one of Joe’s posts there with a link to here. However, please answer any of his posts below or others he posts in the future on Yahoo message board, but only on SA.Joe has just starting to post on SA as joseberk. Here’s the link to the thread we are all posting on now:For those new to investment sites:Seeking Alpha is closely monitored, so stupid stuff gets deleted with warnings.Larry Meyers was kicked off due to posting the type of idiotic comments he makes on Yahoo.
joe_berkowitz • 19 hours ago
I would tell them that all of the information is in the company’s financial statements if you look hard enough.
Or that I find analyzing this stock really interesting..why would a b-school student not be extremely interested in trying to determine whether or not an entire industry will inevitably collapse?
Also, I am not saying that it won’t occur, but what leads you to believe that if the borrowers can’t pay now that they will pay 2 years from now by extending the maturity date? Is it that you believe medallions will hold a higher value then, that Uber will be more heavily regulated and have a reduced impact, what is it?
As for the balloon payments, you may be correct that my figures are unrealistic..it will take a lot of analysis but the average balloon payment can actually be determined from the information in their financial statements to an extent, so I will get back to you on that. Less
Thank you for actually taking the time to write up a nice response. So if I’m understanding this correctly, essentially the long argument is that they will be able to continually grow their “RV and Boat” loan portfolio to the point where investment earnings from that segment will be able to offset the losses from the medallion loan portfolio? That is why I am trying to have this discussion, as all I have really looked into is the medallion portion of the portfolio and am trying to better understand the full picture–let’s say hypothetically that in the next year they are forced to place an additional 15% of the medallion portfolio on nonaccrual, by what percent would they have to grow the consumer portion of their portfolio to offset those losses?
What concerns me in regards to entering TDR’s is that if you look at their 10-Q’s and K from this year, it seems as if they’re not doing a good job entering into TDR’s that will perform well (unless my perception of what percentage of these we should expect to not subsequently default is flawed). Open them up and take a look: before Q1 2015, they had never entered into a TDR for their medallion loans. In Q1 2015, they entered into 11 TDR’s, in Q2 2015 they entered into 7 more bumping up their total to 18 TDR’s, in Q3 2015, they entered into 3 more TDR’s (so 21 total), 1 of which subsequently defaulted at this point. Where it becomes really interesting to me is that in Q4 2015, they entered into 3 more TDR’s, bringing their cumulative total to 24 TDR’s…however at this point 12 subsequently defaulted, meaning 11 subsequently defaulted in Q4 alone! I have to imagine that almost all of these are the TDR’s entered into in Q1…leading me to believe that we’ll see this number increase even further in Q1 2016, as they entered into 7 TDR’s in Q2 2015. So with this in mind, do you think that they’re entering into TDR’s that will perform? My opinion is no, but then again I don’t necessarily have a frame of reference. Less
Yes exactly, I don’t know why that doesn’t make sense to you? The reason I resulted to posting on a message board is because I found what I think is an opportunity, don’t have anybody to discuss it with, and don’t make a stupid decision without understanding why my opinion might be flawed…hence causing me to lose the little money I have. Less
And if you would’ve just said okay then you would’ve realized by now that I’m not Hickman, but instead am a 20 year old college student trying to better understand the financial markets.
What did I do to be sneaky and duplicitous? I got torn apart be “being Hickman” on my first post on the board. If you were open about your stance you would’ve had an open discussion about the facts I provided, but instead you immediately result to calling me Hickman, telling me to “sell the farm”, and claiming I have “an identical writing style”. Less
What if I could prove to you that this actually happened? Just answer my question, would that impact your perception of the stock or is it something that is irrelevant?
That TAXI was unable to collect the principal on a SINGLE medallion loan that was supposed to mature in Q4 2015, and had to either change the maturity date or enter into TDR on every single one of the them.
Hypothetically, I am not trying to convince you guys this happened, but if it did, would this alter your opinion on the stock. And if not, why? Less
Can you explain to me what he did that makes you call him a “felon”? The extent of my knowledge about him is the articles he wrote on SA, so clearly I must be missing the story of what happened on here, can you please elaborate?
This is just the conclusion that I have come to. If you can highlight the flaws in analysis I would appreciate it so I can change my stance, otherwise stop being a troll.
You’re such a troll, why can you not just explain why you are long?
Lol at how anybody questioning a long position is immediately Hickman. I don’t feel like I should have to prove my identity, but what’s your skype? Or then are you going to say I’m just Hickman after some facial reconstructive surgery
by joe_berkowitz • Mar 22, 2016 1:47 PM
I understand that the other half of their portfolio generated 80% of their earnings, and that is a large reason why people are bullish on this stock. What I want to know, is what specifically makes you believe that their medallion loan portfolio isn’t going to fall into the #$%$ and have losses that outweigh the earnings of the other half of the portfolio? Like walk me through how you see the medallion loans playing out–why you think medallion prices will rebound to peak prices, why people will continue to pay and not enter into strategic default, etc. Less
What is your definition of “recover”? I don’t think that they will fall to zero as Hickman and and gordon have tried to convince people, but I don’t see them rebounding to the values the loans were issued at at peak prices, which is over 70% of the medallion loans on their balance sheet. Think about it..a medallion should be valued using a discounted cash flow analysis, and if you do the math, depending on the discount rate you use, the NPV of paying the balloon payment for the operating cash flows the medallion provides over let’s say 40 years plus the value you’d get back when you sell it at the end of the 40 year period, is either close to zero or negative. Whether or not the borrower has the financial capacity to pay or not, it just seems like a situation that would trigger strategic default.
I came onto this board to have a healthy discussion, but apparently if we disagree on something, rather than countering with something of value, you just tell me I’m stupid. Less
Why do you all result to statements like this? I currently hold no position….convince me in the other direction if you feel so strongly about being long
I understand that 80% of the profits come from their other loans. But if 50% of their loan portfolio (as in value on balance sheet, not earnings generated) has the potential to go bad, then why are you disregarding the potential for these losses to be greater than the earnings generated by the other half of their portfolio? Lessjoe_berkowitz25 posts | Last Activity: 19 hours agoMember since: Jun 1, 2010
I currently have no position on TAXI. I was actually long them from February when their stock was around $7.15 to right when their stock hit $9 last week.
I also have no interest in going short TAXI, but am looking into buying longer-term put options, as this seems most reasonable to me, and am trying to better understand both perspectives before pulling the trigger.
After reading all of the comments on both here and SA, I don’t understand why anybody can’t have a legitimate discussion and thoroughly evaluate both sides of the picture. The reason why I decided to start posting on this message board is because I want to make the smartest investment decision possible and hear everybody out, but everybody just defaults to personal attacks. Less
Do you have any insight into the new terms? If I’m understanding this correctly, they’re still going to have to make that payment, just now at a later date, which if medallion prices don’t improve–well I still see an issue, no?
What I just can’t wrap my head around is what happens when these huge balloon payments come due. Like what is the incentive for the borrower to pay when they know their medallion can’t fetch the amount of the balloon payment on the secondary market?
Where are you getting the 20% number from? Doesn’t it say in the 10K that their medallion loans are now 51% of their portfolio?
I’ve read all of the his SA articles and the comments as well as articles from other writers with a bullish perspective. I’m just curious hear your opinion on what exactly he is so flawed about, as I haven’t been able to come to a decision on who’s more right/wrong. Less
What exactly did this guy lie about? I recently became interested in TAXI in the past month, am new to this community, and am eagerly trying to educate myself on both perspectives of this stock.
As somebody who seems to be bullish on the stock, does it not concern you that 6% of their medallion loans have been placed on nonaccrual in year ending 2015 vs. none in the previous year? Or that 12.7% of their medallion loans are 30+ days past due as of Q4 2015 vs. 2.2% in Q4 2014? Things just do not seem to be trending in the right direction to me, especially with balloon payments coming due on the loans that were originated at peak medallion prices, which should only exacerbate this problem. I understand that they have been able to post positive earnings, but I just feel like that’s not the whole picture and eventually these loans will come back to bite them in the #$%$.
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